Happy Tuesday!

23 APR 24

Headwinds or Tailwinds Update (HoT Weeklies): 24w17**: Fund Updates + Market Outlook + Question of the Week:

Carbonwolf Alpha, Fund Alpha: 

$QALM #Fund Alpha (Futures Algo Scalping) 2024 YTD Stats:

Algo Krakens: Long, Current Win Rate: 52.17%

Algo Krakens: Short, Current Win Rate: 63.64%

Total Portfolio Performance for 2023: +167%

Total Portfolio Performance 2024 YTD:  +33.14%

Major Indices:

2024 YTD:

$DJI ~+2.19%;

SPX ~+6.30%;

COMP ~+4.57%;

GDOW ~+4.98%;

/CL $83.40

QALM = Quantitative Algorithmic Leveraged Momentum

TD = Trading Days

Most Recent ~3 Trades:

$Amarok #Fund One: (Derivatives), YTD:

2023 Closed Trade Win Rate: 2/2, 100%

Total Portfolio Performance for 2023:

N/A, temporarily closed.

Observations:

Tailwinds:

+Magnificent/AI 7 Earnings Week. Scheduled Earnings Report this week: Tuesday: Tesla and Amazon; Wednesday: Nvidia and Meta; Thursday: Microsoft, Apple, Google. SPX Daily chart is currently oversold. Every industry is exposed to Artificial Intelligence. See chart. However, observed AI adoption is not as strong as initial estimates. That narrative could change as the Megas report this week.

+Bitcoin Halving Harvest. ~+$10 Billion of inflows since /BTC spot ETFs started trading. Halving historically props up price on lower supply. Bitcoin supply is designed to stop at 21 Million coins. "Halving" is meant to control the scarcity and maintain valuation. Last halving is expected to occur in the year 2140. /BTC demand is high, but tempered by macro-market concerns. Since last halving, /BTC price was ~$9,000 and Institutions were only starting to look at Bitcoin.

Post Performance Past Halving Events:

2012: 50 BTC to 25 BTC: +8,693%

2016: 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC: +281%

2020: 12.5 BTC to 6.125 BTC: +592% one year later

Headwinds:

-Moderating Megacap Momo. Megacap companies lose nearly ~$1 Trillion (~$970 Billion) in Market Cap value since Monday to Friday of last week. NVDA ~-$300 Billion; AAPL ~-$178 Billion; MSFT ~-$169 Billion; AMZN ~-$125 Billion; META ~-$79 Billion; TSLA ~-$77 Billion; GOOG/L ~-$42 Billion. NVDA, most of the Semis including: AMD, INTC and TSMC and TSLA in technical Bear Markets. UBS' Jonathan Golub on Megacap Tech: "Our downgrade of the Big 6 -from Overweight to Neutral -is… an acknowledgment of the difficult comps and cyclical forces weighing on these stocks… momentum is collapsing, with Big 6 EPS growth expected to decline from 42% to 16% over the next year, while the rest of TECH+ and non-TECH+ stocks accelerate."

-Tesla Troubles. TSLA hits new 52-Week Low. Down more than ~40% YTD. Six major Analysts downgrade TSLA Price Targets including:

Wedbush's Dan Ives: "The clock has struck midnight for Musk to lay out the strategic plan for the future." The Wall Street Journal: "Elon Musk Postpones India Trip, prompting questions over TSLA plans."

Sentiment. Investor Sentiment ending 17 APR 24: Bullish: ~38.3%, Neutral: ~27.8%, Bearish: ~34.0%. Fed Beige Book: "Several reports mentioned weakness in discretionary spending, as consumers' price sensitivity remained elevated. On balance, contacts expected that inflation would hold steady at a slow pace moving forward. At the same time, contacts in a few Districts -mostly manufacturers -perceived upside risks to near-term inflation in both input prices and output prices."

SPX Technicals. Close: 5,070.55. VIX: +15.69 = “Neutral.” Fear/Greed Index: 40, FEAR. Key support level to stay above this week is ~4850. SPX 5000 psychological level broken last week and recovered yesterday. Last week SPX, NASDAQ longest losing streak since October 2022. SPX historically due for a 5-10% correction. Cocoa Prices hit new high, ~+171% YTD. German 10-Year Bund and U.S. 10-Year Bond Spread hovering near widest gap in 4.5 years ~2.138 (Monday).

Question of the Week:

Will the demand and proliferation of Artificial Intelligence ("AI") create power shortages in the U.S.? Why or why not?

Disciplined Alpha,

MFA

**These two CLOSED proprietary Hedge Fund Updates are for informational purposes only. Our past performance does not guarantee your future results. Always do your own due diligence, research and suitability before investing or trading.

Happy Tuesday!

16 APR 24

Headwinds or Tailwinds Update (HoT Weeklies): 24w16**: Fund Updates + Market Outlook + Question of the Week:

Carbonwolf Alpha, Fund Alpha: 

$QALM #Fund Alpha (Futures Algo Scalping) 2024 YTD Stats:

Algo Krakens: Long, Current Win Rate: 52.17%

Algo Krakens: Short, Current Win Rate: 63.64%

Total Portfolio Performance for 2023: +167%

Total Portfolio Performance 2024 YTD:  +33.14%

Major Indices:

2024 YTD:

$DJI ~+0.29%;

SPX ~+5.90%;

COMP ~+5.69%;

GDOW ~+2.84%;

/CL $85.28

QALM = Quantitative Algorithmic Leveraged Momentum

TD = Trading Days

Most Recent ~3 Trades:

240415 /ES, Short +43.8% (Closed +0TD)

240415 /NQ, Long -205.0% (Closed +0TD)

240405 /NQ, Long -150.0% (Closed +0TD)

$Amarok #Fund One: (Derivatives), YTD:

2023 Closed Trade Win Rate: 2/2, 100%

Total Portfolio Performance for 2023:

N/A, temporarily closed.

Observations:

Tailwinds:

+American Capital Muscle. Most Megabanks double beat on earnings per share ("EPS") and revenue including: JP Morgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Blackrock, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. Charles Schwab total client assets grew to $9.1 Trillion, ~+20% YoY. Goldman Sachs CEO, Solomon: "We're in the early stages of re-opening the capital markets." Blackrock now manages nearly ~$10.5 Trillion in Assets.

+Buy the Dip (and Chips). Goldman Sachs: "We would 'buy the dip' in global equities with our macro baseline of resilient growth but continue to recommend the Dollar as a portfolio hedge." Patient Capital, McLemore: "The path of least resistance for the market remains higher." Neuberger Berman Private Wealth: "Last week's [hotter-than-expected] inflation data isn't enough to derail the market rally." Samsung gets $6.4 Billion for Chip Production in U.S. Raimondo: "Plans to invest all Chips money by end of 2024."

Headwinds:

-Middle East Escalations.

Timeline:

07 OCT: Hamas attacks Israel, killing 1200, capturing 240

08 OCT: Iran backed Hezbollah attacks Israel

19 OCT: Iran backed Houthis fire missiles at Israel

27 OCT: Israel invades Gaza

19 NOV: Houthis attack Red Sea shipping

24 NOV: Six day ceasefire between Israel/Hamas

01 APR: Eilat, Israel hit by air attack

01 APR: Israel hits building in Damascus housing Iranian military leaders

14 APR: Iran attacks Israel

Iran lacks the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz. Iran may replicate 2019 playbook of attacking tankers, pipelines and critical energy infrastructure. Iran-Iraq political complex has a primary source of revenue: oil exports. Thus, it is in Iran's best interest for Oil prices to continue moving higher. Biden: "U.S. will not take part in Israeli retaliation against Iran." U.S. Secretary Yellen: "Fully expect further sanctions against Iran in coming days… All options to disrupt Iran's terrorist financing are on the table." If Israel does not show restraint in its response, oil prices will likely spike. Defense names up after Iran attack including: RTX ("RTX"), Northrop Grumman ("NOC"), General Dynamics, ("GD") and L3Harris Technologies ("LHX").

-Weakening Earnings Growth. Q1 S&P 500 YOY Earnings Growth slipping. On 01 OCT: +9.6%; On 01 JAN: +7.2%; 15 APR: +2.7%. China March data misses: YoY Retail Sales +3.1% vs. +4.6% est.; Industrial Output +4.5% vs +6.0% est.

Tesla to cut ~10%+ of its workforce. Approximately ~14,000 workers worldwide. Tesla CEO, Musk: "There is nothing I hate more, but it must be done. This will enable us to be lean, innovative and hungry for the next growth phase cycle." JP Morgan on Tesla: "…the sweeping TSLA layoffs announced yesterday, amounting to a reduction in crewed production capacity, should now leave no doubt that the decline in deliveries has been a function of lower demand and not supply." Formerly, a $1 Trillion market cap company, now if TSLA price stays below $157, market cap under ~$500 Billion. Fed Chief Powell: "Recent data have not given us greater confidence to cut… Likely taking longer than expected to achieve confidence to cut."

Sentiment. Investor Sentiment ending 10 APR 24 : Bullish: ~43.4%, Neutral: ~32.5%, Bearish: ~24.2%. JP Morgan:  "…We don't think the rapid repricing in Fed's rate cuts expectation changes our bullish view, as above-trend GDP growth still supports corporate earnings." Fidelity Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer: "3-4% inflation could be the new 2%... Expecting a U.S. soft landing… Market rally is sustainable." Bank of America CEO, Moynihan: "Consumer spending has slowed, but is hanging in there."

SPX Technicals. Close: 5,051.41. VIX: +18.40 = “Extreme FEAR.” Fear/Greed Index: 38, FEAR. Key support level to stay above this week is ~5050 area, secondary area ~4850. 5179 and 5104 support areas broken last week.  /VX climbed to 2024 highs at ~20 handle before easing back slightly. Gold "GC" near all-time highs. As Dollar and Treasury Yields creep higher, commensurate negative pressure on equities is expected.

Question of the Week:

Will Israel escalate the Middle East tensions further? Or, will they ease back?

Disciplined Alpha,

MFA

**These two CLOSED proprietary Hedge Fund Updates are for informational purposes only. Our past performance does not guarantee your future results. Always do your own due diligence, research and suitability before investing or trading.

Happy Tuesday!

09 APR 24

Headwinds or Tailwinds Update (HoT Weeklies): 24w15**: Fund Updates + Market Outlook + Question of the Week:

Carbonwolf Alpha, Fund Alpha: 

$QALM #Fund Alpha (Futures Algo Scalping) 2024 YTD Stats:

Algo Krakens: Long, Current Win Rate: 54.69%

Algo Krakens: Short, Current Win Rate: 61.90%

Total Portfolio Performance for 2023: +167%

Total Portfolio Performance 2024 YTD:  +35.74%

Major Indices: 2024 YTD: $DJI ~+3.17%; SPX ~+9.23%; COMP ~+8.63%; GDOW ~+6.75%; /CL $85.32

QALM = Quantitative Algorithmic Leveraged Momentum

TD = Trading Days

Most Recent ~3 Trades:

240409 SPX, Short +850.0% (Closed +4TD, Green Dragon Wing Kraken)

240408 /NQ, Long -47.5% (Closed +0TD)

240405 /NQ, Long +700.0% (Closed +0TD)

240404 /NQ, Long -80.5% (Closed +0TD)

$Amarok #Fund One: (Derivatives), YTD:

2023 Closed Trade Win Rate: 2/2, 100%

Total Portfolio Performance for 2023:

N/A, temporarily closed.

Observations:

Tailwinds:

+Federal Funds. Taiwan Semiconductor "TSMC" gets $11.6 Billion in Grants and Loans from Chips Act. $50 million to train and develop local workers in Arizona. TSMC has already created ~25,000 jobs and has attracted 14 semiconductor suppliers for the state. Supports investment of $65 Billion in 3 greenfield labs in Phoenix. Goal is to manufacture the world's most advanced semiconductors and support 5G/6G communications as well as high-performance computing. U.S. currently manufactures ~12% of world's semiconductors and represents ~34% of the world's demand. -Source: McKinsey. Bloom Energy "BE" to receive up to $75 Million in Federal Tax Credits to expand Fremont, CA Plant

+March Jobs. March Nonfarm payrolls stronger than expected with +303,000 vs. +200,000 estimated. Unemployment Rate 3.8% vs. 3.9% previous; Average hourly workweek +4.1% vs. +4.3% previous; Labor Force Participation 62.7% vs. 62.5%; Global Venture Capital Deal Activity for Robotics and Drones trending lower since 2021 in favor of Artificial Intelligence.

Headwinds:

-Gold and Black Gold. Gold hits fresh highs as Central Banks increase hoarding. June Gold Comex "/GC" ~$2,370 per troy ounce. Costco sells ~$200,000,000 in physical gold bars online monthly for multiple months. May Oil Futures "/CL" ~$85.61 per barrel. Citadel via Financial Times: "Global oil market likely to be extremely tight." U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve at lowest levels since ~1985. Crude oil continues to push higher due to Middle East turmoil. Energy SPDR Index "XLE" ~+14.55% over last year. Rally started prior to Middle East escalations.

-Q1 Executive Insider Selling and Fed Hawks. Amount of Stock Sold in Q1 2024: Jeff Bezos, Amazon "AMZN" ~$8.5 Billion; Andy Jassy, AMZN ~$21 Million; Mark Zuckerberg, META ~$135 Million; Peter Thiel, Palantir ("PLTR") ~$175 Million; Frank Slootman, Snowflake ("SNOW") ~$69 Million. Ratio of inside sellers increasing dramatically recently. See chart above. Fed Governors Neel Kashkari, Christopher Waller, Lorie Logan, Michelle Bowman and Raphael Bostic reducing their Fed Rate Cut Outlook to "One cut, maybe none."

Sentiment. Investor Sentiment ending 03 APR 24 : Bullish: ~47.3%, Neutral: ~30.5%, Bearish: ~22.2%. JP Morgan Chief Jamie Dimon: "We are prepared for a very broad range of interest rates, from 2% to 8%... Markets seem to be pricing in at a 70% to 80% chance of a soft landing -modest growth along with declining inflation and interest rates. I believe the odds are a lot lower… Rates could surge as national debt rises…" "If long-end rates go up over 6% and this increase is accompanied by a recession, there will be plenty of stress -not just in the banking system but with leveraged companies and others." "Small changes in interest rates today may have less impact on inflation in the future than many people believe."

SPX Technicals. Close: 5,209.91. VIX: +14.98 = “Neutral.” Fear/Greed Index: 61, Greed. Key support level to stay above this week is ~5179 area. Apple "AAPL" breaking below 50-DMA and 200-DMA. Energy prices are one of the most important economic data points and they continue to push higher. Headline CPI report released tomorrow. Earnings Season to kick off on Friday with Banks. Investors likely to punish companies for double misses versus counter moves based on future company narratives.

Question of the Week:

Will the price of Gold break above $2,500 per troy ounce this year? Why? Or, why not?

Disciplined Alpha,

MFA

**These two CLOSED proprietary Hedge Fund Updates are for informational purposes only. Our past performance does not guarantee your future results. Always do your own due diligence, research and suitability before investing or trading.

Happy Tuesday!

02 APR 24

Headwinds or Tailwinds Update (HoT Weeklies): 24w14**: Fund Updates + Market Outlook + Question of the Week:

Carbonwolf Alpha, Fund Alpha: 

$QALM #Fund Alpha (Futures Algo Scalping) 2024 YTD Stats:

Algo Krakens: Long, Current Win Rate: 58.90%

Algo Krakens: Short, Current Win Rate: 63.16%

Total Portfolio Performance for 2023: +167%

Total Portfolio Performance 2024 YTD:  +22.04%

Major Indices: 2024 YTD: $DJI ~+3.93%; SPX ~+9.14%; COMP ~+8.19%; GDOW ~+6.51%; /CL $85.44

QALM = Quantitative Algorithmic Leveraged Momentum

TD = Trading Days

Most Recent ~3 Trades:

240328 SPX, Long +225.0% (Closed +2TD, Red Dragon Wing Kraken)

$Amarok #Fund One: (Derivatives), YTD:

2023 Closed Trade Win Rate: 2/2, 100%

Total Portfolio Performance for 2023:

N/A, temporarily closed.

Observations:

Tailwinds:

+Household Wealth. U.S. Household Wealth hits record high ~$156 Trillion. U.S. Household Wealth gains from stocks ~$4.7 Trillion -source: Federal Reserve.

Stock ownership by Wealth Group:

Top 10% ~86.9%

Top 1% ~49.4%

Middle Class Wealth Gains (since 2020):

+45%, ~$14 Trillion

Top 1% Wealth Gains (since 2020):

+49%, ~$8 Trillion (from equities)

+Commodities Rising. Copper Breaking Out. Russell 3000 Equal-Weight Copper breaks above 200-Day moving average; Relative to Ex-Copper Equal-Weight Russell 3000, Copper is outperforming. Copper has turned bullish. Gold pushing all-time highs also breaking out from previous resistance at ~2,050 area since ~2019. Energy Sector gains in Q1 2024: ~+12.5%. Cocoa soars to record high last week.

Headwinds:

-Minimum Wage Woes. California enacts $20/hour minimum wage for fast food workers. In effect for chains with 60+ locations nationwide. Impacts ~500,000 workers in CA. New York State raises Delivery Worker Minimum Wage to ~$19. International Franchise Association President & CEO, Matthew Haller: "These are small businesses and they're facing now mandated higher costs. And those costs are going to get passed on to the customer and will likely result in fewer jobs." Highest Minimum Wage in U.S.: Washington, D.C. ~$17; Washington State ~$16.28; California ~$16 ($20 for fast-food workers). Lowest Minimum Wage in U.S.: ~20 States $7.25.

-Tech Turbulence. Increased downside risk for Semiconductors. ETF SOX index coming off its best five-month return since 2000. TSLA biggest S&P 500 loser in Q1. Tesla's worst quarter since Q4 '22. Global EV Production, 2024E Share: ~9% Other; ~15% U.S.; ~22% Europe; ~54% China. TSLA YTD Performance: ~-29.06%. Citigroup downgrades entire Tech Sector.

Sentiment. Investor Sentiment ending 27 MAR 24 : Bullish: ~50.0%, Neutral: ~27.6%, Bearish: ~22.4%. Latest inflation data shows some stickiness. ISM Manufacturing Employment Index has been in contraction territory 11 of the last 14 months.

Morgan Stanley Private Wealth's 2024 Scenarios:

SPX Technicals. Close: 5,205.81. VIX: +14.61 = “Neutral.” Fear/Greed Index: 63, Greed. Key support level to stay above this week is ~5179 area. SPX in overbought conditions with Price Action over ~1 Standard Deviation over the 200-Day Moving Average. U.S. 10-YR T-Note trading in channel between ~4.3 and ~4.0 since last December. However, "toying" with 4-month high yield close. Japan's Nikkei falls more than 1% last week. U.K. GDP data confirms recession in 2023. BTC holds steady at ~$70,000 handle. Watch ADP Private Payrolls on Wednesday and March Employment Report on Friday.

Question of the Week:

Will Tech Stocks (Nasdaq/$COMP) end higher at the end of Q2 2024? Or, lower than 16,400?

Disciplined Alpha,

MFA

**These two CLOSED proprietary Hedge Fund Updates are for informational purposes only. Our past performance does not guarantee your future results. Always do your own due diligence, research and suitability before investing or trading.

Happy Tuesday!

26 MAR 24

Headwinds or Tailwinds Update (HoT Weeklies): 24w13**: Fund Updates + Market Outlook + Question of the Week:

Carbonwolf Alpha, Fund Alpha: 

$QALM #Fund Alpha (Futures Algo Scalping) 2024 YTD Stats:

Algo Krakens: Long, Current Win Rate: 54.39%

Algo Krakens: Short, Current Win Rate: 63.16%

Total Portfolio Performance for 2023: +167%

Total Portfolio Performance 2024 YTD:  +20.37%

Major Indices: 2024 YTD: $DJI ~+4.23%; SPX ~+9.09%; COMP ~+8.69%; GDOW ~+6.51%; /CL $81.24

QALM = Quantitative Algorithmic Leveraged Momentum

TD = Trading Days

Most Recent ~3 Trades:

240325 SPX, Short +45.0% (Closed +0TD, Gamma Butterfly)

240322 /NQ, Long +92.5% (Closed +0TD)

240321 /NQ, Long +55.0% (Closed, +0TD)

240321 /NQ, Long +92.5% (Closed, +0TD)

$Amarok #Fund One: (Derivatives), YTD:

2023 Closed Trade Win Rate: 2/2, 100%

Total Portfolio Performance for 2023:

N/A, temporarily closed.

Observations:

Tailwinds:

+Sector Leaders and Buybacks. Leading S&P 500 Sectors, Quarter-to-Date: Comm. Services ~+16%; Technology ~+13.5%; Energy ~+11.5%; Financials ~+10%. Month-to-Date: Energy ~+9%; Materials ~+4.5%; Comm. Services ~+4.5%; Utilities ~+4%. Consensus 12-month EPS growth rising to ~10% for the S&P 500 and ~20% for the Tech sector. Executed Buybacks: 2020 ~$538 Billion; 2021 ~$919 Billion; 2022 ~$950 Billion; 2023 ~$815 Billion; 2024 (est.) ~$925 Billion.

+Follow the Leader. Last week's FOMC left rates unchanged. Morgan Stanley: "The difference between our call for four cuts this year and the FOMC's three cuts will come down to core PCE inflation -we expect core PCE inflation to reach 2.4% this year (vs. FOMC at 2.6%)." JP Morgan: "Overall, [last week's] meeting supports the view that the Fed will initiate a gradual pace of easing in June." If the Fed cuts rates in June, the People's Bank of China, Bank of Korea, Reserve Bank of India, Bank of Indonesia, Bank of Taiwan and Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely join the easing camp and cut interest rates around the same time or in 2H24.

Headwinds:

-DOJ vs AAPL. U.S. Department of Justice and 16 States sue Apple for "monopolizing smartphone markets," blocking innovative super apps, suppressing mobile cloud streaming services, limiting third-party digital wallets. AAPL response: "If successful, it would hinder our ability to create the kind of technology people expect from Apple -where hardware, software, and services intersect. It would also set a dangerous precedent, empowering government to take a heavy hand in designing people's technology. We believe that this lawsuit is wrong on the facts and the law, and we will vigorously defend against it." AAPL was formerly the largest company by Market Cap in the world. Currently top 3. AAPL down ~11% YTD.

-Fed Hawks. Despite Fed Chief Powell's dovish comments, other Fed Governors remain skeptical. Fed Governor Bostic: "The economy continues to deliver surprises and it continues to be more resilient and more energized than I had forecast or projected… And so as a consequence, I've sort of re-calibrated when I think it's appropriate to move." Fed Governor Cook: "Fully restoring price stability may take cautious approach to easing monetary policy."

Sentiment. Investor Sentiment ending 20 MAR 24 : Bullish: ~43.2%, Neutral: ~29.6%, Bearish: ~27.2%. CNBC All-America Economic Survey, Question: "Good time to invest in stock?" All respondents ~37% Yes; Financial Elites ~60% Yes; Who is Better -Biden or Trump? CNBC Survey, on Inflation ~+27 Trump; on Healthcare ~+18 Biden; on Middle Class ~+5 Trump; on Overall Economy ~+30 Trump; on Crime ~+28 Trump.

SPX Technicals. Close: 5,203.58. VIX: +13.24 = “Neutral.” Fear/Greed Index: 67, Greed. Key support level to stay above this week is ~5104 area. AAPL at "Death Cross" Formation. TSLA in "Death Cross" Formation since early February. Markets are closed on Friday and Core PCE (Fed's favorite indicator) prints on Friday so outsized reaction is likely on Monday.

Question of the Week:

Will Apple end 2024 higher or lower than today's price (~$171)?

Disciplined Alpha,

MFA

**These two CLOSED proprietary Hedge Fund Updates are for informational purposes only. Our past performance does not guarantee your future results. Always do your own due diligence, research and suitability before investing or trading.